Connecting the dots — so you can follow the line.

Independent global macro research. We trace Fed decisions, currency swings and trade shocks to the markets and companies they move, and publish within 48 hours of the event.

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Written by college students.

How every note connects the dots, using our yen note

The weak yen is already in the numbers · Oct 21 →

1 · The event The yen sits near 158 per dollar after the BOJ hiked to 1.25%.
2 · Why it happened The Fed hiked too, to 3.75–4.00%, so the rate gap stayed wide.
3 · How it flows through Overseas sales convert into more yen. Imported fuel and goods cost more.
4 · Who wins and loses ▲ Exporters such as Toyota and Mazda. ▼ Importers such as Nitori.
5 · We're wrong if The yen is still at 158 per dollar or weaker on Dec 18.

On the calendar

Each decision gets a flash note within 48 hours.

Oct 28 Federal Reserve After September's hike
Oct 30 Bank of Japan Expected to hold at 1.25%
Dec 9 Federal Reserve With new projections
Dec 18 Bank of Japan We grade Call #001

Latest research

All research →

PREVIEW · JAPAN · CENTRAL BANKS

BOJ preview: the 1.25% hold is priced in. The 2% wording isn't.

None of the economists Bloomberg surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to move on October 30. What matters is whether it says underlying inflation has reached 2%. Our base case is a hawkish hold that keeps a December hike on track.

October 22, 2026 · Michael Lawton

Read the preview Earlier: The weak yen is already in the numbers →

USD/JPY, Oct 22~157

BOJ policy rate1.25%

Economists expecting an Oct 30 moveNone

Expecting a December hike83%

DecisionOct 30

What we track

Client-ready research you approve. We never see client data.

For wealth managers: when clients call asking what the news means for them, you'll have something to send. Within 48 hours of the event, we write a client-ready edition of our research. Your firm reviews it, edits it, and sends it under its own name.

How it works →

What a firm receives: an excerpt of the client-ready paragraph from our yen advisor edition.

You may have seen headlines about the Japanese yen, which is trading near its weakest level against the dollar in decades. The main reason is simple: interest rates in the US remain much higher than in Japan, which pulls money toward the dollar. For investors, this mostly affects how international holdings translate back into dollars. […] We don't see this as a reason to change a long-term, diversified plan, but we're watching it closely […]

Also included: the advisor flash note, talking points for client calls, and a quarterly letter draft.