Open calls
Every call we make is dated, public and graded on a date we set in advance. Graded calls stay on this page, right or wrong.
How every call works
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1
We state the call
In one sentence, published with the note that argues it.
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2
We set the grading date
Before we know the answer, usually tied to a central-bank decision.
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3
We say what proves us wrong
A specific, checkable condition, not a hedge.
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4
We grade it, and keep it here
Right, wrong or mixed, with a short note on what we learned.
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1 call awaiting its grade
Call #001
OPEN · NOT YET GRADED
The yen will be stronger on December 18 than when we made this call: fewer than 158 yen per dollar.
- Published
- Oct 21, 2026
- We grade it
- Dec 18, 2026
- Wrong if
- The Fed's published yen rate for Dec 18 is 158 or more
Why we think so: the weak yen's boost is already in exporters' forecasts, and the rate gap should narrow as the BOJ keeps hiking. We grade it with the Federal Reserve's published daily yen rate (FRED series DEXJPUS). The yen was about 158 per dollar when we made the call and about 157 on October 22.
Read the note behind this call → · Latest: BOJ preview →
Graded
None yet.
Our first grade is due December 18, 2026, after the Bank of Japan's decision. It will appear here whether we were right or not.